An Investor's Log, Week 3

Another tough week with ~2% loss, mostly from gold (-8.7%) also my US Europe and Emerging market stocks are still losing money. 

I asked ChatGPT what it meant. Here's what I find out.

The gold failure can be attributed to three major factors: real yields spike, USD strengthened, and liquidity stress. The third factor is really more about gold itself being too high, so we can skip that. The thing about real yields and USD is that, the Iran crisis causing oil price and basically everything around it to rise, that is, an inflationary supply shock. This is quite the opposite of the geopolitical shock before that caused gold to spike, because it was only when people are taking money away from business that gold becomes a safety haven, but when inflation are expected, the economy gets too hot, people tend to spend moeny asap, gold then becomes a burden.

The suggested portfolio change is, to add energy & commodity exposure to 15~25%, to shift from a global ex-US setting back to US growth concentration, use USD and bonds to replace gold as defensive. The portfolio change would be:


I shall start the shifting first thing next week.

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