An Investor's Log, Week 7

 As usual, the weekly dashboard:

Although US stock market seemed really well over the past 3 weeks, the US-Iran conflict doesn't seem to me to be easily settled, as promised (million times by Trump) days before. The latest news was that the Strait of Hormuz just shut down AGAIN and the deal was far from satisfying everyone. So Oil price dropped but might bounce back quickly, while the stock market may fluctuate quite a bit. 

How I wish I could be able to bet on volatility related derivatives! Because if there's anything I am sure of, this is the only thing that I am sure of: prices will not stop fluctuating until everyone in the game is tired, I mean both the political game and the investment game. So, I am still on the watch, still waiting for things to settle down before I can build my portfolio. Btw, my portfolio now looks like this:

Allocation snapshot (approx)

  • Cash: 31% ← very high
  • Gold: 14% ← strategic hedge
  • Equities (total ~33–36%)
    • US + US/EU core
    • Emerging/frontier tilt
    • Small China/HK exposure
  • Bonds: ~6–7%
  • Commodities ex-gold: ~6–7%

And uh, ChatGPT told me that my portfolio is "beta exposure, not a thesis-driven allocation." And I asked what the heck is a "thesis-driven allocation" and it answered, with my forcing it to be succinct:

What you should avoid

  • Going all-in tech → too fragile
  • Going too heavy gold → you miss upside
  • Sitting in too much cash → you miss everything

One-line answer

Yes: earn with US tech now, protect with gold for what might break later.

I shall try it out, preferrably before the end of this month. 

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